We saw that weather conditions (at given leaf wetness and temperature) could be used to estimate the risk of development of Fusarium head blight in the cereal productions at a local scale (grid 1 x 1 km). To transpose this risk to the plot level, it is however necessary to be able to integrate additional information concerning cultural conditions obtained from the local GIS or farm plans (previous crop, phyto protection), the sensitivity of the variety or the general context of diseases pressure in the crop.

The compilation of these various factors is made by means of probability models the objective of which is, not only, to estimate Fusarium head blight risk of development, but also contamination risk with the DON. The procedure, used for the development of this model, contains a calibration phase and a validation phase. During the last two years, collected data allowed the Agricultural Research Centre to adapt the model for Belgian conditions. A first validation will be realized from observations made in 2003.
The system reviews each of the various plots and their attributes. A qualitative and quantitative value (risk level) is then generated to characterize each parcel of wheat.